Dearth of quality new gold discoveries puts supply growth under threat — report

The new report shows that there have only been five major gold discoveries since 2020, adding about 17 million ounces to the firm’s database of gold discoveries. For its analysis, the New York-based firm defined a major gold discovery as one containing at least 2 million ounces in reserves, resources and past production.

In total, there are now 350 gold discoveries catalogued by S&P between 1990-2023, containing nearly 2.9 billion ounces of gold. The discovery count represents a 3% rise on the previous analysis in 2023, which had 345 gold discoveries with 2.81 billion ounces.

However, S&P’s report noted that while the number of discoveries and amount of gold continue to grow each year, most of the assets were discovered decades ago and only recently met its criteria for a notable gold discovery.

Compared to its last year’s analysis, the five new discoveries contributed to just 22% of the 79 million ounces added in the 2024 update.

It also pointed out that the average size of the recent gold discoveries has shrank, at about 3.5 million ounces compared with 5.5 million ounces during 2010-2019. In fact, none of the discoveries made over the past 10 years entered the list of the 30 largest gold discoveries.

This trend, said S&P research analyst Paul Manalo, supports the firm’s long-held view that the industry’s focus on older and known deposits limits the chances of finding huge gold discoveries in early-stage prospects.

“The lack of quality discoveries in the recent decade does not bode well for the gold supply,” said Manalo.

“Based on the latest monthly Gold Commodity Briefing Service, we expect gold supply to peak in 2026 at 110 million ounces, driven by increased production Australia, Canada and the US — countries that also account for the most discovered gold.”

He went on to add that gold supply is expected to fall to 103 million ounces in 2028, resulting from a decline in supply from these countries.